Opinion: North Korea could provoke something unthinkable - war between US and China

Opponents of nuclear weapons fighting in urban areas can cause an unimaginable humanitarian crisis. But the scenario could be even worse if a war between China and the US is unleashed, says The National Interest.

China and the US could not have gone to war in 1950. The war came as a result of a misjudgment of China's intentions and capabilities by the US: the US failed to detect the Chinese army's move to Korean territory, did not pay enough attention to China's signals and did not realize the country's diplomatic efforts, Robert Farley added in his article in The National Interest.

Thus, the Chinese intervention has become a surprise, says the author. The first Korean War did not work well for any country, although the US and China had managed to maintain the independence of their "puppets."

The Korean War can be triggered again for several reasons. The fall of the North Korean regime could provoke a competition for Pyongayng which, in turn, could trigger a conflict between the two military powers, says Robert Farley

China is unlikely to consider the US response to a North Korean attack as a legitimate motive for war unless such a response goes beyond certain red lines.

The National Interest analyst points out that Beijing does not want to see US troops along the Yalu River. In addition, he points out that China may face a US attack on North Korea as a sign of an incorrigible aggression, evidence that the US is a true "pariah state", which may or may not attack China in the future.

As a prelude to the intervention, China will begin by showing its discontent through military preparations as well as diplomatic condemnation, he points out. The Trump administration faces risks of a misinterpretation of China's statements, as it did in 1950. The US may classify these signals as an indication of China's willingness to compromise or may not understand them.

At the same time, according to Farley, if Beijing is serious, it would begin to withdraw its far-reaching systems from the North Korean border to safer places in the interior of the country.