Is North Korea bluffing when it comes to denuclearization?

In the last two days, the North Korean capital - Pyongyang - has become the stage of a summit between the two Koreas. Of course, the main theme of the meeting was the process of denuclearization of the country of juche, but a specialist interviewed by the newsroom was not very optimistic about the subject.

This is already the third bilateral meeting between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in in the current year. The meeting resulted in a joint statement by the presidents and defense ministers, who also established a North Korean willingness to close down the Tongchang-ri missile launch base and to completely dismantle the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

In addition, Seoul and Pyongyang have decided to discontinue large-scale artillery operations and military flights near the demilitarized zone to avoid incidents, withdraw military personnel from the region, disarm personnel from the border town of Panmunjeom, and create in the border areas of the Yellow Sea and of Japan a demilitarized belt where there will be no military maneuvers.

Create an impression

However, according to Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in South Korea, it is too early to say that the agreements reached by North Korean and South Korean leaders at the summit will be a step forward in denuclearization, since Pyongyang shows no will to give up nuclear weapons.

"North Korea has no intention, not the least possible and no reason to give up nuclear weapons. The most we can count on is the restriction of North Korean nuclear potential and the elaboration of accessible gaming rules for both the international community and North Korea, "said the interviewee.

Thus, Lankov believes, the main objective of the inter-Korean summit was "to create more optimism possible".

"The thing is that recently in Washington there has been a growing awareness that North Korea is not rushing at all to take steps towards a significant reduction of nuclear potential. More than that, all the concessions made by Pyongyang are now convertible, now symbolic.

Under these conditions, voices of 'hawks' are increasingly high in Washington, who consider it necessary to return to the old policy of maximum pressure against North Korea, "he said.

This, in turn, underlines the analyst, causes concern in both Pyongyang and Seoul, because an armed conflict, which can be caused by "hawks", would cause damage to both countries.

"Today, both North and South Korea, regardless of Pyongyang's real willingness to make concessions, intend together to create an impression that North Korea plans to give." This was precisely what the summit was today, said Lankov.

Future of the center in Yongbyon

Among the commitments reached during the meeting, the professor highlighted the North's promise to dismantle the North Korean facilities at the Yongbyon research center.

"It is true that a considerable part of North Korea's capabilities in the production of nuclear weapons is located in this center.

However, the closure of this center would not mean the suspension of the North Korean nuclear program, since Pyongyang has other centers where similar searches and productions are held. Meanwhile, Yongbyon's suspension to say that the volumes of nuclear weapons production in North Korea will be significantly reduced, "believes the interlocutor of the essay.

So, anyway, Lankov explained, if this promise "is actually fulfilled," this will be an important step in reducing tension in the respective region of Asia.

"At the same time, it is not worth constructing illusions, since North Korea does not plan to refuse nuclear weapons. In recent years, it has been not only US actions but a number of other powers that have demonstrated in practice how the refusal of nuclear nuclear weapons is extremely dangerous for a country that is in a complicated international situation, "he said.

On the other hand, he noted, in this context, a question arises about the need to make reciprocal concessions on the part of Washington.

North Korea has made some concessions, although it should not be forgotten that they have now been convertible at the time, but the US has so far made no concessions. we should expect that not only Pyongyang, but also Washington, take a few steps, "he said.