Temer has chances to complete term, but remains vulnerable, says British magazine

According to The Economist, the Brazilian president "maintains support where it matters most: in the Congress"


The British magazine The Economist has estimated that President Michel Temer has a good chance of completing his term. In the issue that comes to the newsstands and subscribers tomorrow, the vehicle highlights, however, that he remains vulnerable in office because of corruption charges. For the publication, since May, when a recording of Temer, seemingly discussing the payment of bribes, there was the expectation that the promoters of the country would act. Then, on June 26, the Attorney General of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, made the first such accusation against a president in office.

Janot, the weekly explains, bases the accusations on the audio and testimony of Joesley Batista, the billionaire businessman who secretly recorded it. This resulted in an operation in which the former president's adviser, Rodrigo Loures, was filmed receiving R $ 500,000 reais for allegedly interceding with the antitrust agency on behalf of his company. Janot suspects that the money, plus another R $ 38 million reais promised by Batista, was, in fact, intended for Temer. The president says he is innocent and stresses that the relationship with Loures is everything that connects him to the payment.

The report recalls that even before the charges, the Temer government registered the lowest popularity in history, with only 7% approval. In June, he remained in office when the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) decided to release him and also Dilma Rousseff, of whom he was vice president prior to the impeachment last year of charges of illicit campaign financing in 2014. But , According to The Economist, he maintains support where it matters most: in Congress. In order for Janot's case to proceed, approval by two-thirds of the House MPs is required. Fear, according to the magazine, seems to have enough support to make this unlikely.

MEPs seem to have decided, according to the vehicle, that two things are needed to give them a chance for re-election in 2018: an economic resumption and a containment of the vast investigation of corruption called Lava-Jet.

"On neither point, the removal of Temer would serve them well," the weekly said.

In the first, the president has managed to reduce inflation and achieved a return to growth in the first quarter of the year, as well as signs that his pro-market reforms are bearing fruit. The more flexible labor reform appears to be in progress, according to the publication.

As for the Lava-Jet, the magazine cites that politicians from all sides are under suspicion, so most agree on the desirability of weakening it. On June 28, Temer announced that Raquel Dodge would replace Janot when his term expires in September. They expect her to take a less emphatic approach.

Among those dissatisfied is Dilma, of the left-wing Workers' Party (PT), who sees its replacement as a "coup." The report also points out that at any moment, the Federal Supreme Court (STF) may rule against former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, still the most popular politician in Brazil, who has half a dozen cases pending against him for corruption And money laundering.

"All this means that Mr. Temer has a good place to complete the last 18 months of his term, but he remains vulnerable," The Economist said.

For example, Congress may seek to soften an unpopular review of public pensions, which reduce the budget. You can ask for more in exchange for support. And Janot, the publication continues, is expected to file a series of other charges against the president - for accepting other bribes, as well as obstruction of justice. Several of his colleagues are already in prison, such as Loures, or they may be soon.

"The Brazilians, who marched in millions to demand the impeachment of Dilma, are tired of protesting, but other surprising revelations could take them back to the streets," the publication said.