Was Brazil on the brink of a trade war with the United States?

That Donald Trump has protectionist outbursts, everybody knows. However, it was hoped that Brazil would be spared the American economy's ill-conceived economic ideas, which promised to focus on its measures to the detriment of China and Mexico. Now, things will not be as simple as that: Republican is watching our ethanol.

The United States government began to make noise because of the increase in imports of Brazilian biofuel made from sugarcane. This caused Brazil to submit proposals for higher taxation on imports of corn ethanol produced in US soil.

The increase in imports of sugarcane-based biofuel seems to have caught the attention of America America. Last month, the US Environmental Protection Agency called for a review of annual quotas for renewable fuels, given the "suspicion" that Brazilian ethanol was being used to meet national targets. Brazil has already retaliated and may increase import rates for corn ethanol, the base used in the US product.

Is it the beginning of a trade war? If this is the case, the first analysis shows that we would be the winners, since the domestic market is robust, coupled with the recent rise in ethanol import taxes in China (a major consumer of the product). But things do not promise to be easy.

The newsroom chatted exclusively with the Bioagencia executive director, the Biomass Energy Development Agency Tarcilo Rodrigues. According to the expert, the surcharge on Brazilian ethanol was a reality until 2014, which is why the American industry in the sector has consolidated, became the largest in the world (produces 50 billion liters per year) and is now more competitive.

"The process of indebtedness of national plants is very high, interest rates are still the highest in the world. The sector is going through a series of adjustments ... In order to renew the crops, it is necessary to raise capital. You do not get this capital at rates compatible with the business, there is deterioration in productivity levels and product enhancement. It is a reversed situation to American ethanol, which has a consolidated industry, amortized, the cost of energy to transform corn into ethanol reduced Radically, "Rodrigues worries.

Also according to Rodrigues, the sector could benefit from a policy of reducing emissions of polluting gases. Compared to gasoline, corn ethanol is 30% less polluting, while the sugarcane product is at least 60% greener. "The modern modulation is to tax who pollutes more and to balance the possible expenses with health caused by emission. What we look for in the international forums today is this capacity of Brazilian ethanol in reducing the polluting gases."

In times of Donald Trump, averse to climate control policies and enthusiasts of the oil and coal industry, this may seem like a distant reality in the short term. For the time being, the "let it out" group has already entered the field. According to Bloomberg, Brazil has postponed its chamber of commerce decision on the possible 20% tax and lobbyists have begun work to convince the US government about the damage to trade relations between the two countries.