Envelhecimento da população e desproporção entre homens e mulheres são apenas dois dos efeitos negativos de 35 anos de proibição. Analistas duvidam que fim da política trará aumento significativo da taxa de natalidade.
A política do filho único de Pequim, que há algum tempo vinha sendo flexibilizada, recebeu nesta quinta-feira (29) um fim oficial, com o anúncio da autorização para que casais chineses tenham dois filhos. A implementação exata da nova política deve ser deixada ao nível das administrações locais, e casais também terão inicialmente que dar entrada numa solicitação oficial para algo que, em outras partes do mundo, é tido como um assunto privado. E ter mais do que duas crianças continua não sendo permitido.
"A nova política é boa, mas, para nós, ela vem com 30 anos de atraso", diz a aposentada Huang, 61, moradora de Pequim. Ela conta que teria gostado de ter um segundo filho, mas que isso resultaria em uma multa pesada (correspondente a entre dois e seis vezes a renda familiar anual) e a perda de seu emprego. A segunda criança provavelmente não receberia uma inscrição no registro populacional e arcaria com as devidas desvantagens. "Conheço muitas mulheres que passaram por um aborto forçado", lembra Huang.
Reduction of population growth
For more than 35 years, the Chinese leadership ordered the one-child policy to people to curb rapid population growth. This was accompanied by a comprehensive educational campaign. Condoms were distributed, and the conditions for abortion have been simplified.
The Chinese government sees the policy as a success because, as a result, population growth has been contained. "According to Chinese statistics, the average number of children per woman fell from four to six children for one or two children," says the sinóloga Astrid Lipinsky, the University of Vienna. Now living in China almost 1.4 billion people. Without the one-child policy would be about 1.7 billion, according to official statistics.
"China will become old before getting rich"
For this, however, the country paid --and will still pay for a good time-- a high price. The society is rapidly aging. Since 1999, the United Nations defines China as "an aging society". At that time, the proportion of people over 65 in the total population surpassed 7%. In 2050, nearly a quarter of all
Chinese people will have more than 65 years, according to estimates of the United Nations.
According to the National Institute of Statistics of China, in 2012 the number of Chinese working age fell for the first time. Just last year, China lost about 3.7 million people of working age. This is a big problem for a country whose economy is still on the rise and whose health and welfare systems are underdeveloped. "China is getting old before getting rich", predict experts in demographics of the
Chinese Academy of Sciences.
How, especially in rural areas, the male children are preferred, the one-child policy has meant that female fetuses were aborted more often, in addition to encouraging the practice of infanticide of newborn girls. "Today there are fewer women, there are far fewer girls. In 2014, there were 116 newborn boys for every 100 girls. In other words, there is a big gap," said Lipinsky.
Many Chinese men --geralmente the most pobres-- can not find a wife --and never make it, because there are far fewer women than men in his generation. This means that fewer children are born also in the next generation. The lack of women also causes the growth of human trafficking and prostitution.
Easing
The negative impact of the one-child policy has been recognized long ago by the government. In 2006, some provinces allow two children to couples where both are only children. In 2013, the rules were more relaxed. Since then, families in which one spouse is an only child may also have two children. But apparently, the measures seem to have very early. According to information from the National Commission for Health and Family Planning, by May 2015, only 13% of the 11 million couples would get a second son filed a request to that effect.
Many experts doubt that with the abolition of the one-child policy, there is a significant increase in the birth rate. This is also believed Zhou Xiaozheng, a professor at People's University in Beijing. According to him, there was a cultural change in Chinese society due to the one-child policy. If previously having many children was something considered a blessing, now acceptable, if not desirable, it is the couple did not have children and have two incomes.
"After 30 years of one-child policy, the disadvantages are obvious. Now this policy is abolished, which is a good thing. However, I think that anyone who wanted to have more children, had them. It would be better if the government encouraged people to have not only two, but also, if possible, up to three children, "says Xiaozheng.
Trend industrialized countries
But against this there is a tendency that has already reached many industrialized countries. Just as in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan, and also in Western Europe, the number of childless couples rises sharply in China. In the late 70s, a Chinese had an average of 4.22 children. In 2014, that number was 1.4. Currently, the proportion of Chinese households without children is 40%, according to a survey of Family Planning Commission.
Especially in big cities, many couples do not want more than one child. "Urban life, and we know it very well in Western Europe, it is simply more expensive and difficult to organize with children," stresses Lipinsky. The result of an online survey conducted by Sina Chinese Internet company supports this thesis. According to the survey, 52% of 5,000 respondents said that the economic pressure is too high to have a second child.
人口老齡化和不均衡，男女之間只是兩個35年禁令的負面影響。分析師懷疑該政策的結束將帶來出生率顯著增加。
北京，這一段時間已經放寬，的一胎化政策收到週四（29）的正式訂單，與廣告的許可，使中國夫婦有兩個孩子。新政策的具體實施應留在地方行政的水平，和夫婦也將最初提交的東西，在世界其他地區，被認為是私事的正式請求所需。和具有兩個以上的兒童仍然不允許的。
“新的政策是好的，但對我們來說，它還配有30旬，”退休的黃，61，誰住在北京表示。她說，她本來希望有第二個孩子，但是，這將導致巨額罰款（相當於2至6倍家庭年收入）和他的工作的損失。第二個孩子很可能不會帶來人口登記冊上記錄，並會承擔必要的缺點。 “我知道很多女人誰經歷了強迫墮胎，回憶說：”黃。
減少人口增長
在超過35年來，中國領導層下令一胎化政策的人，以遏制人口的快速增長。這是伴隨著一個全面的教育活動。是安全套分發，以及流產的條件進行了簡化。
中國政府認為該政策是成功的，因為，作為一個結果，人口增長得到了遏制。 “根據中國的統計，每名婦女平均子女數從四到六個孩子為一個或兩個孩子下跌”的sinóloga阿斯特麗德Lipinsky，維也納大學。現在住在中國近140十億人。如果沒有獨生子女政策將是約1.7十億，根據官方的統計數據。
“中國將成為未富先老”
對於這一點，但是，該國支付 - 並且仍然會支付一個很好的時間 - 價格高。社會正在迅速老齡化。自1999年以來，聯合國中國定義為“老齡化社會”。在闕團隊，65歲以上人口佔總人口的比例超過7％。 2050年將近四分之一的中
中國人將有超過65歲，根據聯合國的估計。
根據中國國家統計研究所，2012年中國勞動年齡的人數下降了一線隊。就在去年，中國損失了約370萬人的工作年齡。這是對國家，其經濟仍處於上升且其對健康和福利制度不發達的一個大問題。 “中國越來越富先老”，預測專家的人口統計
中國院士。
怎麼樣，尤其是在農村地區，男性兒童優先，獨生子女政策意味著放棄更多的闕女胎經常，除了鼓勵新生女嬰女嬰的做法。 “今天有較少的婦女，也有少得多的女孩。在2014年，有116新生男嬰對100個女孩。換句話說，有很大的差距，”Lipinsky說。
許多中國男人--geralmente最pobres--找不到老婆 - 並且永遠不會成功，因為有少得多的女性比男性在他這一代。這意味著闕少生孩子的下一代也誕生了。女性的缺乏也導致販賣人口和賣淫的增長。
緩解
一胎化政策的負面影響已經認識很久以前由政府。在2006年，一些省份允許兩個孩子的夫婦如果雙方是獨生子女。在2013年，規則較為寬鬆。自那以後，家庭中的夫妻一方是獨生子女也有兩個孩子。但很顯然，這些措施似乎都很早。根據2015年5月從全國委員會健康和計劃生育的信息，只有13％的11萬對新人將獲得第二個兒子提起闕有效的請求。
許多專家懷疑闕與一胎化政策的取消，有一個在出生率顯著增加。這也被認為周孝正老師，在北京人民大學。據他介紹，有中國社會文化的變化，由於獨生子女政策。如果以前有很多孩子被一些認為是福，現在可以接受的，如果不理想，這是夫妻倆沒有孩子，有兩筆收入。
“經過30年的獨生子女政策，缺點也很明顯，現在這個政策被取消了，這是一個很好的事情。不過，我覺得闕人誰希望有更多的孩子，讓他們。這將是，如果政府更好鼓勵人們有沒有只有兩個，而且，如果可能的話，最多三個孩子，“小鄭說。
趨勢工業化國家
可是這有一種傾向，闕已經達到了許多工業化國家。正如在日本，新加坡，香港，台灣，以及在西歐，無子女夫婦數量在中國急劇上升。在70年代末，中國的平均4.22的孩子。在2014年，這一數字為1.4。目前，中國家庭無子女的比例為40％，按照計生委的調查。
尤其是在大城市，很多夫妻不想要不止一個孩子。 “城市生活，我們知道它相當不錯，在西歐，那簡直是更加昂貴，難以組織有兒女”強調Lipinsky。一項網上調查由中國互聯網公司新浪網進行的結果支持這一論點。據調查，5000受訪者52％的人認為經濟闕壓力過高有第二個孩子。
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