Sun, 01/11/2015 at 07:47
Recession returns 3.3 million households class D / E
Marcia De Chiara and Anna Carolina Papp
Tags: C class D class Crisis / E
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The recession brought down part of the new middle class, the population of the C class, to the base of the social pyramid. Between 2006 and 2012, the consumption boom, 3.3 million households rose a notch, classes D / E to C class, according to a study of Tendencias Consultoria Integrada. They began to have access to products and services that did not fit in your pocket, like health care, higher education and car zero. Now, affected by rising unemployment and inflation, these families begin to make their way back.
From 2015 to 2017, 3.1 million households class C, or about 10 million people, are expected to fall and fatten the class D / E, the study found. "Mobility what happened in seven years (2006-2012) should be practically annulled in three (2015-2017). We are living, unfortunately, the advent of the former new class C," says economist Adriano Pitoli, partner of Consulting and responsible for the study.
To design this number, Pitoli found that, between 2015 and 2017, the economy should recede 0.7% per year; the real income, which includes income from work, Welfare and Family Grant, will fall 1.2% per year, and unemployment is expected to jump, reaching 9.3% of the population of working age in December 2017 - the highest level in 13 years. According to the study, the C-class is made up of families with monthly income between R $ 1,958 and R $ 4,720 and the class D / E for those with monthly income of up to R $ 1,957.
"This is the first fall in the number of C-class families since 2003 and the first year of significant growth of the D / E class," says Pitoli. This year alone, the class D / E will be expanded by about 1.5 million families; at 1.1 million in 2016 and 454,000 in 2017. "Most of these families are making their way back, came from the C class," says Pitoli. But it argues that another portion is formed new families within the class D / E.
The economist says the IBGE surveys, base projection, do not let you know how much each parcel, since the institution no family follows the family. "But of course, the change of composition is about migration (from one class to another)."
For the economist Mauro Rochlin, professor of MBAs at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the factors that would be taking part of the C-class families to return to the stratum of origin are high impressive in the number of unemployed, the closing vacancies, salary Real average that stopped climbing and more expensive and restricted credit. "All of this conspires in favor of the idea that there was this migration."
Maurício de Almeida Prado, Managing Director of CDE plan, consulting with a focus on low-income, points out that the most vulnerable to the recession range is the lower class C, since 50% of it is informal. "The lower middle class have increased risk of back. She has little education, too feels the fall of the economy informal employment, almost no savings and a limited network of contacts to obtain employment."
In practice
Myrian Lund, a professor at FGV and financial planner, which guides through a site families who need to restructure the finances, said the loss of purchasing power of class C affects both employees as unemployed. For employees, they say they are heavily indebted because it took loan with payroll deductions (payroll). Although the interest this facility be less, today the provision of funding is weighing more in the pocket of these families, as, amid the recession, the salary will not increase above inflation.
For Prado, the Plano CDE, although these families have income fall, they constitute a different lower class, the experience gained with the rise. "It's a new kind of lower class:. More connected, educated and in some ways even more prepared" The newspaper is information O Estado de S.Paulo.
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