Just simple majority, 41 senators, that president is removed from office for 180 days. surveys show that opposition has enough votes, paving the way for interim presidency Temer.
The Senate meets on Wednesday (11/05) to vote the opinion of the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. According to surveys of the Senate, the result should not generate any surprise: the government should be defeated and Dilma will be away for a period of 180 days.
During this period, it should be carried out his trial for a crime committed, marking the end of another stage of the impeachment process initiated in December. With the departure, Vice President Michel Temer takes the presidency temporarily.
For this to occur, a simple majority is required, ie 41 of the 81 votes must be in favor of impeachment. Since early April, surveys have indicated that the opposition had enough votes. The latest research shows that at least 50 senators to vote against the government on Wednesday. Only 20 declared to be against the process. The forecast is that the vote be completed by the evening of Wednesday.
Since the approval of impeachment by the House on April 17, the difference unfavorable to the government on the scoreboard increased. Last week, Rousseff had suffered a defeat in the special committee that reviewed the case. Fifteen of the twenty members who voted approved the opinion.
Turbulence and uncertainty
The vote will take place after days of turmoil and uncertainty. On Monday, the Senate was surprised by a decision of the acting mayor, Waldir Maranhão (PP-MA), which led to the annulment of the vote in the House.
The Maranhão initiative angered the President of the Senate, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL), who decided to ignore the stroke of the pen of Mr and determined to continue the process. Hours later, Maranhão, which also suffered pressure from MEPs, capitulated and reversed the annulment.
In the Senate, Renan had already organized a calendar that gave impetus to the government, extending the analysis of the stage of admissibility for about three weeks. In impeachment of Fernando Collor in 1992, this stage lasted only two days.
The date of the vote also remained uncertain because of Delcídio Senator situation do Amaral (no party-MS). Renan said he would not want the former PT voted and threatened only hold the vote after Senator was impeached. After negotiations, the senators agreed to review the case of Delcídio still on Tuesday, voting for the impeachment of his term and paving the way to keep the calendar.
last stand
On the same day, the government launched its last chance to trigger the Supreme Court (STF) to annul the impeachment process. Minister José Eduardo Cardozo, the Attorney General of the Union, was already saying in recent weeks that would attempt this latter route. The minister Teori Zavascki was appointed rapporteur government action, and has not given a deadline for him to announce his decision.
Since the Senate picture began to unfavorable opinion, some pro-government began to admit defeat and to discuss how they will behave in opposition. The president also held in recent days one inaugurations schedule of works and official meetings with supporters. She continued using the same defiant and calling Temer group "con man" and "usurper."
Dilma must accompany the vote in the Alvorada Palace, next to Lula. As occurred during the vote in the House, Brasilia should be once again the scene of protests for and against the government in front of the Congress. Barriers were installed again to separate the two groups.
After the vote, the ruling should spend the next month trying to reverse the result at trial. Surveys show that the opposition does not have the two-thirds majority - 54 votes - necessary to remove and install Dilma definitely Temer permanently in the Presidency.
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