How are the scenes to confirm a North Korean News

If the fifth nuclear test conducted by North Korea on Friday (9) shook the politicians out to demonstrate the technological advances of the country's weapons program, also reminded them how difficult it is to analyze one of the most isolated countries and classified the world .

Not even we, in South Korea, we anticipated what would happen on Friday morning until European monitors seismological signals reported a tremor emanating from the site of Punggye-ri test. South Korean President Park Geun-hye, had to cut short his state visit to Laos. The Prime Minister and the Minister of Unification, who traveled through the interior, had to hastily return to Seoul.

For months, the Ministry of Defence here had given the standard answer --and the most segura-- when asked about the likelihood of another North's nuclear test: the country was ready to carry out at any time since its leader, Kim Jong-un, this approval.

This answer, however, is hardly satisfactory for us that covered the region and live within range of attack North Korean missiles, Kim tries to equip with nuclear warheads.

But it is often a fruitless exercise to try to predict the events in North Korea. Be on constant alert, ready for surprises, it is the safest course.

I remember how scared I was when North Korea announced the death of Kim father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il in 2011. And the "New York Times" was not the only organization caught off guard: external intelligence agencies not they learned of the death of the leader until Pyongyang announced two days later. Many journalists and government senior officials, including presidential advisors were out to lunch when a presenter appeared on North Korean television and read the news, in a tearful voice.

The news of the last North's nuclear test was less dramatic, but still caught by surprise many people, including this reporter.

For decades, US spy satellites have been tracking the military sites in North Korea, including Punggye-ri, which were conducted all previous underground nuclear tests. In recent years, private thinkers groups also found place, with commercial satellite images. The results, however, are often inconclusive.

Some foreign media channels, such as news agencies Associated Press and the Japanese Kyodo operate offices in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. But their reporters can not meet locals or travel freely.

Those who try to report on North Korea out sometimes talk with sources --muitas times pagas-- North, but the reports of these general sources can not be verified. Reporters from abroad often also have the country deserters, but few come with access to valuable information about its nuclear program or key leaders.

And, of course, all the news media of North Korea is controlled by the state, which makes it difficult to separate propaganda facts.

The National Intelligence Service (SNI) North Korea is a common source of the country's news for the South Korean media --which, in turn, is often repackaged by the international media, feeding a high demand for updates. SNI often leaks information to various representatives of the local media, insisting that it is attributed to an anonymous source. The next day, local media channels offer identical reports --and the SNI spokesman's office refused to confirm the information when approached by reporters from foreign organizations.

But analysts warn that the lack of political neutrality of the agency often changes their information.

The government of South Korea, especially the SNI, he was accused of leaking information selected --or incomplete and not verificadas-- on the North to help influence domestic public opinion and promote their policies.

In recent months, he took the unusual step of announcing defections of graduates from the north and the execution of officials there, invariably citing them to portray the North as unstable and desperate under the Kim government.

Andray Abrahamian, an expert on North Korea who works for the Choson Exchange, recently warned that unconfirmed rumors about North Korea reach the public through the foreign news media.

"The ability of North Korea makes seemingly easy launch rumors about what might be happening there, for corroboration often seems too difficult," Abrahamian wrote. "There is a great interest of the reader by North Korea, especially degrading news, which makes it very difficult for journalists and editors to resist repeating a rumor when they are away from history and so are least responsible for it."

What does all this mean to a branch head of the "New York Times" in Seoul? How does this affect my report?

One of the first things I do when I see a dramatic news spread by the media is to trace its origin. Often, it begins with an account in South Korean media based on a single anonymous source, and I try to evaluate the history of the media channel and its possible ideological bias.

It is shocking to see how a report or rumor of these may change, be distorted and magnified, as is repackaged by other media channels abroad. (A recent example is the infamous story about "Kim Jong-un gave his uncle for the dogs to eat.")

Given the uncertainty and sensitivity surrounding North Korea, the authorities here usually use anonymous when speaking with the press. This, in turn, means that material from anonymous sources are common in South Korean media, especially when the story involves North Korea. Comply with the strict guidelines of the "New York Times" on the use of anonymous sources means extra efforts to reach and verify the sources, always trying to find those who are willing to identify themselves --and often leave without publishing materials. (It often takes weeks and even months for such a story is confirmed or disproved independently. So it has been forgotten.)

The truth is that there is no completely safe way to report on North Korea. But it is useful to remember that the two governments on the Korean peninsula are in a military stalemate for decades, and that the North is ruled by a young leader, ambitious and cult obsessed with ensuring the survival of him and his regime building a nuclear arsenal.

This helps to explain what I consider a remarkable consistency in behavior and in North pronouncements considered long-term.
But it does not help me, or anyone, to predict the news of North Korea tomorrow.