Recently, Moscow has again been the target of likely restrictive measures coined by the US and the European Union. Although they have not yet been finally approved, the Kremlin seems already to be pondering the response to the new sanctions packages. We explain what could be and we analyze who is in the game these actions will do.
Initially, the war of sanctions was provoked by the repudiation of Western countries over the reunification of Russia with the Crimean peninsula and the conflict that still hangs in eastern Ukraine. The US authorities, at the time, were the first to impose a series of restrictive measures against Moscow, pushing Europe to adhere to such a strategy despite the imminent negative impacts.
Moscow, for its part, did not leave the act unanswered. In late summer 2014, the country introduced an embargo, predominantly in the area of food, against a wide range of European importers, especially affecting those states that had bet on Russia as one of the largest export markets.
As a result, some of the EU members (the Baltic and Eastern European countries in general) suffered significant losses. For Russia, these "forced" measures were both harmful and beneficial. On the one hand, as a result of the policy conducted, domestic consumers experienced sharp price increases. On the other hand, Russian industry has once again gained more self-sufficiency than it had long sought-for example, Russian producers have begun to create analogues of French cheeses which, to experts, are no worse than their European competitors.
Even the Europeans will have enough of the russophobic 'hysteria'?
Several days ago, the US House of Representatives passed by majority a new bill that presumes new sanctions against the state and Russian companies. Now it is up to US President Donald Trump to sign the document, which, according to existing assessments, would lead to a very "painful" response from the Kremlin.
Moreover, it seems that there are limits to political solidarity, even for allies as close as Europe and the United States. Soon after the announcement of the US lawmakers' decision, the German partners were quick to point out that, as much as they support the policy of sanctions against Moscow, they can not allow European industry itself to target it.
At the highest level, the Kremlin is still refraining from any definitive comments before the bill gains strength as a true piece of legislation.
However, a number of Russian media are already developing different scenarios of Russian authorities' behavior, stressing that it would be rather harsh and likely to affect the interests of the major producers whose well-being would be undermined by the ambitions of the American political establishment.
Among the likely response measures already being voiced by several Russian state analysts and officials is, for example, a real "crusade" against legendary American giants such as McDonald's, Pepsi, Mars and others. From the point of view of Russian lawmakers, sanctions against these companies would not only be good retaliation, but would also benefit the nation's "sanitation."
Meanwhile, Moscow, as well as four other members of the "elite club", holds up its trump card - that is, the veto of a country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. According to various media, the Kremlin could strike a "blow" against the White House on the most sensitive issues - for example, vetoing Western resolutions aimed at "taming" Pyongyang and Tehran. This, of course, would already pose a considerable obstacle to the aspirations of the American "hawks."
Crimea, again at the epicenter of the scandal
Europe, on the other hand, has its own political and economic "kitchen", where several events are independent of Washington. Last week, the main object on the stage of the Russian-Western "confrontation", to everyone's surprise, was the German giant Siemens. For readers to have a notion, it has been 160 years since it has been present in Russia.
The scandal was provoked, again, by the crime. Siemens said that although it has not yet had legally proven evidence, it has credible information on the transport of German production turbines to the peninsula.
This, for the company, represents a very strong violation of European contracts and rules, and the turbines had initially been delivered to Russia to be installed in the Taman area. What gave rise to even more discontent was the fact that the Russians allegedly had not only transported but also modified the devices. As a result, Siemens has suspended deliveries of electrical equipment to Russia.
In this case, the German conglomerate, which undoubtedly bets heavily on the Russian market and values this partnership, was in fact forced to sacrifice its interests to please the European institutions. Meanwhile, there are those who say that several competitors of Siemens in the European market are already "staring" at the place that may soon be empty.
For now, it is not yet clear whether the German company will be able to continue working in Russia and with Russia. Unfortunately, it is very likely that, at least in the turbine area, the giant will have to denounce this partnership to maintain its reputation. And for renown, as you know, nothing is more important than the observation of political "etiquette."
The gulfs of political intransigence
It seems that all the positive scenarios that political scientists have been building in recent months over the much-anticipated revitalization of Russian-American relations will not come true. The president, no matter how extravagant and strong he is, always depends on the political establishment, especially on a system of checks and balances similar to the American.
For the Kremlin, the likely passage of the law would mean a further "dip" in bilateral relations - although it seems that it can not sink any further. In addition, this would undermine all the conciliation efforts previously undertaken, including the bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump.
As far as the European Union is concerned, there is the impression that the companies and even the politicians who work there are less and less confident and enthusiastic about the anti-Russian campaign, especially when it comes to such pragmatic nations as the Germans. It remains to be hoped that political ideas will at some point lead to a realistic and rational approach.
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